Iowa captured Barack Obama’s two terms as president but swung to the right when he twice endorsed former President Donald Trump and is now at the point where next month’s election results could end the state in a swing regime.

The Hawkeye State’s lone Democrat in Congress, Cindy Axne, is in a tight race as Republicans try to completely flip the state’s congressional delegation for the first time since the 1950s.

As of 2020, the share of registered Democrats has decreased, while the share of Republican and independent voters has increased. Governor Kim Reynolds, both US senators, three of the four US representatives, and most of the state legislature are Republicans.

Although several races have tightened in the weeks leading up to Election Day in November. 8, Iowa’s results could  highlight GOP strength ahead of the 202 presidential election and cause the parties to focus elsewhere.

“If Republicans sweep statewide offices in 2022, along with federal and state legislative races, Iowa’s best-in-class status will likely end,” said Andrew Green, a political science professor at Pella Central College in Iowa and an independent pollster.

“Iowa has always been known for its streak of independence.” But Iowa could lose top status as its status as the site of the first presidential contest may not last after a series of problems with the 2020 election commission. Candidates, pollsters, strategists and reporters typically gather there nearly two years before a presidential election. to shake hands, attend trade shows and attend county luncheons to take the temperature of the predominantly white, rural area.

Iowa is off the map in 202 with a bipartisan strategy to win the Electoral College,” said David Wasserman, editor-in-chief of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. For decades, Iowans have switched parties depending on who serves their needs, whether it’s supporting corn-based ethanol or flood relief when the Missouri River overflows.

“I don’t want the Democratic Party to give Iowa away, and I don’t want the Republican Party to take Iowa for granted,” said Mark Mueller, a farmer and Republican.

Since 2020, the Republicans have invaded. The share of registered Republican voters increased from 33.6 percent to 32 percent of the electorate, and the share of independent voters from 32. percent to 33 percent.

The share of Democrats fell from 33.2 percent to 31.5 percent, state data show. “Iowa is still a purple state,” Jeff Kaufmann, chairman of the Iowa Republican Party, said in a statement, although “it may be getting a red tint.” Because they are national, Republicans are telling voters that Democrats are missing the economic pain of Iowans. Meanwhile, Democrats are pushing for abortion rights after the Supreme Court struck down the constitutional right to due process.

Inflation has a special resonance in Iowa. Rising costs and rising fertilizer prices are reducing the value of income for many farmers, who say they are worried about national demand for corn-based ethanol fueled by a national push for electric vehicles. And working families say they are concerned about the availability and cost of child care. Three of Iowa’s four congressional districts are the most competitive but lean or likely to be Republican, according to the Cook Political Report.

In the Third District, Axne is rejecting ads linking him to President Joe Biden and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, whom the GOP blames for inflation. Axne, who emphasizes bipartisanship, attacked challenger Zach Nunn over abortion.

According to AdImpact, which tracks political spending, both parties’ ad spending has been nearly equal over the past five weeks. A Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll of released last week shows the race is just as close. Selzer and Co.

According to a poll by The Cook Political Report, 9 percent of likely voters in the district said they would vote for the Democratic congressional candidate, just 1 percentage point more than Republican voters and within the margin of error assessed the area leaning Republican.

“We have Cindy Axne in one of the most competitive seats,” Hakeem Jeffries, a New York Democrat and House Democratic leader, said in an interview at a Polk County barbecue he attended on Axne’s behalf. “

I’m sure he can win, but we need people to vote.” Democrats succeeded in overthrowing early Republican leaders. In the Second District, 6% of likely voters polled by the Des Moines Register preferred the Republican congressional candidate, up from 5% in July.

It’s frustrating news for GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson, who is running against her Democratic challenger, state Sen. Liz Mathis. Meanwhile, Sen. Chuck Grassley’s lead over his Democratic challenger is the strongest the 89-year-old US senator has seen in decades. The Cook Political Report turned the race from likely Republican to definite Republican this month.

Mueller, a Republican farmer, said he wants voters to shift from infrastructure to business, which benefits the state and its key industries. For example, as crop prices rise, farmers see gains in sales of corn, soybeans and other commodities, but costs have risen much more.

Mueller said Biden might not have visited the state’s ethanol plant earlier this year and ended a ban on higher ethanol content in gasoline blends for the summer if Axne had not been a member of the congressional delegation. “I don’t think any political party has 100% right answers,” he said.